I calculate the risk of breast and leg cancer from eating bacon, ham, hot dogs, sausage, and lunch meat.
In 2018, undoubtedly the most respected cancer research center in the world, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), which is part of the World Health Organization, published its report on processed meat, concluding that foods such as bacon, ham, hot dogs, lunch meat, and sausage cause cancer, classifying processed meat as a Group 1 carcinogen. “These findings,” concluded the director of this organization, “it also supports current public health recommendations to reduce meat consumption.” Critics hesitate to place processed meat in the same carcinogenic category as asbestos and tobacco. Or, as the pesticide company puts it mildly, how can eating processed meat be in the same category as mustard gas?
As I discuss in my video How Cancerous Is Processed Meat?the categories relate only to the strength of the evidence that the agent causes cancer or not, not to the extent of the cancer. This does not mean that they all pose the same level of risk. It’s safer to eat a sandwich full of pastrami than plutonium, even though both are Group 1 carcinogens, meaning both substances are known to cause cancer in humans. So, how dangerous is meat? The relative risk of colorectal cancer was 18% for every 50 grams consumed per day. But what does that really mean?
However, 50 grams is about one hot dog, or two breakfast links, or two slices of Canadian bacon or ham. Therefore, a daily sandwich with one or two slices of baloney can increase your risk of colorectal cancer by 18%. But half a pound of pastrami on rye will blow it up a lot 80%. OK, but what exactly does an 18% increased risk mean? Another way of looking at it absolute risk versus relative risk. Assuming that the lifetime risk of colorectal cancer is about 5% (1 in 20), increasing your risk by about 20% will increase your risk of developing colorectal cancer from 5% to 6%. Now, on a population scale, an 18% decrease in risk would mean about 25,000 fewer cases of colorectal cancer every year in the United States, 25,000 fewer families a year dealing with this diagnosis, if we swapped our daily baloney sandwich for hummus or if we chose veggie dogs instead. So, it all depends on how you look at it.
Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States for men and women combined, after lung cancer. So, if you don’t smoke, colon and colon cancer may be your worst cancer enemies. But we can reduce the risk of getting it by about a fifth by making one dietary change: cutting out processed meat from our daily diet.
How does the 18% increase in cancer risk compare to other risky behaviors? In my testimony before the Dietary Guidelines Scientific Committee, I made what may sound like a hyperbolic metaphor. I asked, “We try not to smoke around our children, why send them to school with a balloon sandwich?” That is not hyperbole. According to the Surgeon General, living with a smoker increases the risk of lung cancer by 15%. Therefore, breathing in secondhand smoke every day increases our risk of lung cancer almost as much as eating processed meat every day increases our risk of colon cancer.
The meat industry responded that we should consider the risks and benefits before telling people what to eat or breathe. Think of all the benefits of baloney—lunch meat is not only cancerous, but it’s easy.
Indeed, processed meat is not only cancer-causing. An article criticizing the “meat terrorism” of the World Health Organization cited the Global Burden of Disease study comparing how many cancer deaths are caused by eating processed meat compared to the use of tobacco or alcohol. But if you look at the study they refer to, the estimated 37,000 deaths caused by a high processed meat diet are colorectal cancer deaths and do not include the 100,000 deaths from diabetes or the 400,000 deaths from heart disease. So, in reality, we may be talking about half a million deaths caused by processed meat, as you can see below and at 4:06 in mine. video.
And it’s not just colon and rectal cancer. If you look at the science since the IARC decision was published, processed meat may also increase the risk of prostate cancer, breast cancer, and pancreatic cancer.
Unfortunately, research shows that “despite growing public health concerns about processed meat consumption, there have been no changes in the amount of processed meat consumed by US adults over the past 18 years.” Of course, it would help if the Final Dietary Guidelines for Americans happened to mention that processed meats are carcinogenic. Publishing a “clear and science-based statement about processed meat” in the next Dietary Guidelines would certainly help. But the scientific committee did not make that suggestion.
Sadly, those with colorectal cancer “do not improve their lifestyle after diagnosis,” although that may be because “70% of cancer patients never receive dietary advice from them. [medical] they do not provide during or after treatment.” That just hit me.
An article published in the scientific journal Cancer Research stated that “despite the continuing crisis of the meat industry—they are learning well from the tobacco marketers—meat must continue to focus on public health.” New York City is leading the way, passing a law to ban processed meat from school meals. Not giving our children carcinogens? What an idea!
Meanwhile, the processed meat industry is trying to reformulate its products. It’s like in a pharmacy, where you try to reduce the potential side effects of one drug by prescribing more. For example, fiber may be added to hot dogs to try to balance the risk, potentially reducing the burden of cancer by changing the way it is processed rather than banning processed meat altogether.
Doctor’s Note
If you missed the previous video, check it out IARC: Processed Meats Like Bacon Cause Cancer.
For my full testimonial on the US Dietary Guidelines, check out Highlights from the 2020 Dietary Guidelines Hearing.
